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Why Ethiopia’s Massive Nile Dam Project Has Spilled Over Into Regional Tensions_我的网站

一 |     Danielle 编译          据英文《先驱报》报道，2024年的首份Curia民调结果于昨晚（1月16日）出炉。结果显示，选民对政府的好感飙升，国家党的支持率突破了40%。    Under construction since 2011, the GERD project is one of the largest public infrastructure projects in Ethiopia, and will be the biggest hydroelectric power plant on the African continent once finished next year.,The third phase of the filling of a massive reservoir, capable of holding up to 74 billion cubic meters of water, was completed this week, with two of the dam’s planned 16 turbines now operational. When construction is finished, the dam will be capable of generating some 6,000 megawatts of power – more than double the average output of a WER-1000 nuclear reactor.,AfricaWATCH Water Pour Over Spillway on Ethiopia’s GERD Hydroelectric Dam After Finishing Third FillingYesterday, 22:33 GMT,In a ceremony inaugurating the project on Friday, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stressed that the dam was Ethiopia’s “gift,” and that it was “Ethiopia’s responsibility to use it” together with the other two Nile Basin countries - Egypt and Sudan.,“PM @AbiyAhmedAli reiterated that Ethiopia is working to ensure the benefits of the lower basin countries, saying that our Abbay River [Ethiopia’s term for the Blue Nile, one of the two major tributaries of the Nile] takes what it deserves while passing on what others deserve,” the prime minister’s office tweeted following the ceremony.,PM @AbiyAhmedAli reiterated that Ethiopia is working to ensure the benefits of the lower basin countries, saying that our Abbay River takes what it deserves while passing on what others deserve. He also congratulated all Africans on this milestone. (2/2) pic.twitter.com/Be9WtrHczO— Office of the Prime Minister - Ethiopia (@PMEthiopia) August 12, 2022,Just Deserts,The question of which country “deserves” what has been the subject of considerable consternation and debate between the three nations, as has the dam’s potential environmental impact, with Cairo and Khartoum fearing the filling of the 145 meter tall, 1.8 km long dam could threaten the region with droughts and floods. Last month, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry warned that Cairo would defend its interests using “all means available” at its disposal, and called on the United Nations Security Council to negotiate a legally binding agreement between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan on regulating the dam’s operation. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi earlier called the GERD dispute a “red line” security issue.,Ethiopian Ambassador to Russia Alemayehu Tegenu dismissed these concerns, telling Sputnik last month that Egypt and Sudan were trying to “internationalize and politicize the dam to solve their internal affairs” and assuring that the dam “has no significant harm” for the downstream nations.,WorldEgypt, Sudan Politicising Renaissance Dam Construction, Ethiopian Diplomat Says27 July 2021, 08:23 GMT,Nile River: Giver of Life,Stretching some 6,695 km and covering over 3.3 million square km, the Nile is the longest river in the world, and has played a significant role in regional civilizational development going back to the Ancient Egyptians owing to the rich soil perfect for agriculture created by its annual flooding, and its use as a tool for regional river navigation. Ethiopia’s Blue Nile tributary accounts for a whopping 85 percent of the Nile’s total waters.,Egypt, which receives almost no rainfall, relies on the Nile for more than 90 percent of its freshwater, with eastern Sudan similarly dependent on the river for its economic wellbeing and water and food security.,Legacy of Colonial Meddling,Part of the difficulty of regulating the dispute over the Nile is the lack of a regional agreement regulating the waters’ flow. Addis Ababa is not a party to the 1959 bilateral treaty between Egypt and Sudan dividing the Nile’s waters.,A separate 1929 Nile Waters Treaty between Britain and its then-puppet state of Egypt, plus the territories of what are now Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Sudan provided Cairo the right to veto infrastructure projects up the Nile if they threatened to impact the country’s interests. However, that treaty similarly didn’t apply to Ethiopia, which managed to survive as the only independent nation in Africa after the European imperialist scramble for the continent in the 19th century, and which was never consulted on the agreement’s terms.,Russia’s Position,As a strategic partner of both Ethiopia and Egypt, Russia has sought to assure the dam dispute’s peaceful and mutually amenable resolution, with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov indicating in 2021 that Moscow would be ready to provide technical assistance for any negotiations on the matter. Russia also supports the use of the African Union platform to resolve the crisis.,Also last year, Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia called on the three countries to stick to the terms of the 2015 Declaration of Principles on the GERD, which urged consensus in reaching an agreement on guidelines for the dam’s filling and operation, and committing Ethiopia to avoid steps which could harm its downstream neighbors. “At the same time, we note legitimate concerns of Egypt and Sudan over the possible negative impact that unconstrained functioning of the dam may produce on the populations of those countries in drought prone years,” he said.,The 2015 agreement and efforts at the African Union and UN levels mean that a baseline for a breakthrough and compromise exists. However, amid regional and global concerns about food and water security, and the threats posed by increasingly prevalent climate disasters and extreme weather events, the GERD dispute comes during a period of heightened regional and global tensions.,In 2021, Africa and Middle East intelligence analysis group Pangea-Risk warned that an all-out water war between Ethiopia, Egypt, Sudan, or their proxies was becoming increasingly probable in the face of dwindling options for a mediated solution.。         Advertise with us          今年1月，国家党获得了41%的支持率，较去年12月民调中的36.5%大幅跃升，          工党的支持率稳定在28.4%。         绿党的支持率为9.5%，下降了一个百分点。行动党则从上月的6.3%升至1月份的7.8%。

二 | 优先党的支持率为5.6%，低于上月的8.1%。

三 | 毛利党从5%降至3.6%。         按照国会席位来计算，国家党能够获得51个席位，行动党10个席位，优先党7个席位。

四 |          工党将获得36个席位，绿党12个席位，毛利党6个席位。         个人支持率方面，工党党魁Chris Hipkins的支持率大幅下滑9个百分点，跌至新低。

五 | Hipkins一年前接任总理时，支持率为35%，如今则低至13%。

六 |          他与Christopher Luxon的差距扩大至18个百分点。Luxon的支持率上升了1个百分点，达到31%。         净支持率方面，Luxon为5%，而Hipkins仅为3%。         Luxon也比Hipkins更受欢迎。42%的人对Luxon持正面看法，37%的人持负面看法。Hipkins的数据分别为37%和34%。         值得一提的是，自2022年2月以来，第一次有更多的人认为新西兰走在“正确的轨道”上。净4%的人认为国家正朝着正确的方向前进，较去年12月大幅上升，当时净19%的人认为新西兰正朝着错误的方向前进。去年年中，有42%的人认为国家走在错误的道路上。         另外，国家党在所有重大问题投票上都领先于工党，包括经济、卫生健康等。

七 |          该民调于1月8日至1月10日进行，对1000名受访者进行了调查，误差率为±3.1%。         相关阅读：          最新民调：Luxon支持率下滑，优先党和毛利党成最大赢家          大选日临近！过去18个月，各党的支持率发生了怎样的变化？          大选前最后的民调出炉，没有谁能“稳赢”！历史是否将再次上演？          最新民调：工党支持率上升，“造王者”还是优先党          国家党警告称或需“二次选举” 可能性到底有多大？          政治学家解读：联合执政面临哪些风险？合作关系破裂怎么办？          新民调：优先党支持率继续上升！国家党+行动党席位减少          “造王者”依然是Peters！两大党支持率与上周持平，行动党跌了......          注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。

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九 |          chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有          (责编：丹妮)          来源 -          相关内容                罗托鲁瓦男孩被胶枪击中面部 嫌疑人已被捕           颤抖吧！新西兰电动车主要多交钱了！从4月起开始……           前绿党议员涉嫌行窃案：警方上门调查           涉嫌多次行窃的绿党议员从国会辞职：“我辜负了很多人，非常抱歉！”           奥克兰东部铁路线重新开放，但西线和南线马上要开始施工了           绿党议员涉嫌第三起偷窃事件！这次发生在惠灵顿           涉嫌偷窃的绿党议员，今天回新西兰了，结果……           一海外游客在公路上逆行10分钟后，迎面撞上一辆汽车，被控危险驾驶。

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