一 | 8月23日，英国媒体发布了一篇文章，里面讲到俄罗斯驻英国大使馆那把坐了七年的椅子，如今空了整整一个月，莫斯科却连个接替的人影都没提。 WASHINGTON -- President Joe Biden is considering a trip to Israel in the coming days, but nothing has been finalized, a senior administration official said Sunday.A trip would send the strongest message yet that the U.S. is behind Israel following the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. The administration has already pledged military support, sending U.S. aircraft carriers to the region as well as aid. Officials have said they would ask Congress for upward of $2 billion in aid for both Israel and Ukraine.The official could not publicly discuss internal deliberations about the potential presidential travel and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP’s earlier story follows below.Egypt's president criticized Israel’s military operation in Gaza in a stern pushback Sunday to the United States as America's top diplomat extended his frenetic travels across the Mideast trying to prevent the war with Hamas from igniting a broader regional conflict.With an Israeli ground offensive looming, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed in some of his strongest language to date that Washington would stand with Israel “today, tomorrow and every day” in a partnership of shared democratic values, but that Israel must take “every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.” He leveled no direct public criticism of Israel or its bombing campaign that has killed civilians in Gaza.From Cairo, where President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi conveyed his criticism, Blinken went to Jordan and planned to return to Israel on Monday, carrying to Israeli leaders the feedback he received in a rush of meetings with leaders throughout the Arab world.His second visit to Israel in recent days will come amid heightening fears that a looming Israeli move into Gaza could spark a wider war with devastating humanitarian consequences, a growing concern for the Biden administration. And the death toll of U.S. citizens rose to 30, with 13 still missing.Egypt’s state-run media said el-Sissi told Blinken that Israel’s Gaza operation has exceeded “the right of self-defense” and turned into “a collective punishment."Blinken told reporters before leaving Egypt that “Israel has the right, indeed it has the obligation to defend itself against these attacks from Hamas and to try to do what it can to make sure that this never happens again." Mindful of the potential human cost in Gaza, Blinken said "the way that Israel does this matters. It needs to do it in a way that affirms the shared values that we have for human life and human dignity, taking every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.’’Earlier Sunday, the envoy met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh, talks that built upon earlier sessions with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. Blinken said that what he heard in every meeting with Arab leaders “was a determination of shared view that we have to do everything possible to make sure this doesn’t spread to other places, a shared view to safeguard innocent lives, a shared view to get assistance to Palestinians in Gaza who need it and we’re working very much on that.”The White House also appointed David Satterfield, a former ambassador to Lebanon and Turkey, to lead U.S. efforts to get humanitarian assistance to “vulnerable people through the Middle East.” Satterfield was expected to arrive in Israel on Monday.From Washington, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser said the U.S. was not “making requests or demands of Israel with respect to its military operations.” Jake Sullivan, making the rounds of the Sunday TV news shows, said the administration was “simply stating our basic principles — the principles upon which this country is based and all democracies, including Israel, are based. It’s what makes us different from the terrorists, that in fact we respect civilian life.”He said the U.S. was not “not interfering in their military planning or trying to give them instructions or requests specific.” Sullivan said the U.S. is conveying the message in public and in private that “all military operations should be conducted consistent with law of war, that civilians should be protected, that civilians should have a real opportunity to get to safety” and have access to food, water, medicine and shelter.Those remarks marked a shift in the U.S. administration's comments in recent days as officials have heard concerns from Arab leaders about the consequences of what a humanitarian catastrophe resulting from an Israeli ground offensive would do not only to Palestinians but also in inflaming public opinions in Arab nations and potentially destabilizing relatively friendly countries.Sullivan also said the U.S. has been unable so far to get American citizens out of Gaza through Egypt’s Rafah crossing with Gaza. “It has been difficult to execute that operation to facilitate their passage out. … It’s a high priority,” acknowledging that “I’m not aware of anyone else being able to get out at this time.” The crossing was closed because of airstrikes early in the war. There are an estimated 500 Americans living in Gaza, but that number is imprecise, officials have said.U.S. officials have said the Arab reaction to Blinken’s message has been generally positive — acknowledging Israel has a right to respond to the Hamas attacks but expressing deep concern about the humanitarian situation in Gaza and unable to stay silent about the Palestinian civilian casualties that result. The Arab leaders have also said the current situation cannot be resolved without an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal that gives the Palestinians an independent state.Blinken made clear in Egypt that the U.S. will not waver in supporting Israel, saying, "We will stand with it today, tomorrow and every day and we’re doing that in word and also in deed.’’In his roughly hourlong meeting with Prince Mohammed at the de facto Saudi leader’s private farm outside Riyadh, Blinken “highlighted the United States’ unwavering focus on halting terrorist attacks by Hamas, securing the release of all hostages, and preventing the conflict from spreading,” the State Department said.“The two affirmed their shared commitment to protecting civilians and to advancing stability across the Middle East and beyond,” according to a department statement.The Saudi description of the meeting focused primarily on Palestinian civilians, echoing the sentiments that the other Arab leaders with whom Blinken has met. It said Saudi Arabia would object to the targeting of “civilians in any way or disrupt(ing) infrastructure and vital interests that affect their daily lives.”The prince “stressed the need to work to discuss ways to stop the military operations that claimed the lives of innocent people,“ the Saudi Press Agency said in a report about the meeting.___Associated Press writers Sam Magdy in Cairo, Colleen Long in Washington and Michelle L. Price in New York contributed to this report.。 可真正让伦敦坐不住的，不是大使走人，而是俄罗斯接下来的动作。 至于这把空椅子什么时候能再坐上人，恐怕不取决于俄罗斯也不取决于英国，而是取决于旁边另一位“大佬”还要装看不见多久。
二 | 七年老将说走就走 先给不常看国际新闻的朋友捋捋现在的情况，今年俄罗斯驻英国大使安德烈·凯林正式离任回国，这人干了七年多。 从我的角度出发，那段时间英国、法国、德国代表正好跑去跟俄罗斯副外长拍桌子抗议乌克兰战争，你说这是巧合我是不信。 可英国这边急了，媒体挖到一条内幕消息，国家安全系统内部人士直说，莫斯科这招就是故意打脸，意思翻译过来就是，你们英国在我们眼里已经不重要了。 以我的感受来说，这话说得够直白，连外交辞令都懒得套了，这在过去几十年的英俄交往里，几乎没见过，那俄罗斯到底为什么翻脸翻得这么彻底？ 我觉得得从最直接的这根导火索说起。 俄罗斯这次没打算忍 就是8月中旬乌克兰用了两家英国公司生产的无人机，对伏尔加格勒州和罗斯托夫州的炼油厂发动了至少三次打击，俄罗斯驻英国使馆当天发了一份声明。 在我看来措辞已经不是在讲道理了，直接说伦敦“故意押注乌克兰危机升级”，还补了一句虚伪地声称要争取和平，声明最后那句警告才是真杀招，英国介入越深付出的代价就越高。 依照我的个人理解，俄罗斯已经把话挑明了，你英国造的武器打我本土，我就让你难受，在此之前，俄罗斯已经放话要扣押英国船只。 从我的角度出发，俄罗斯这套打法是有步骤的，先召回大使把外交关系压到代办级，再用无人机事件升级官方谴责，最后甩出海上登检这种硬茬子手段。 一步接一步，刀刀都往英国肋条上戳，这绝不是临时起意，是憋着劲在找机会下手。 欧盟连声都没敢吭 可问题来了，英国挨了这么多刀欧盟在干嘛，就我个人的观察而言，欧盟外交代表出来说了句话，呼吁“双方避免单方面升级”。 这话说得四平八稳，两边都点了名又两边都没得罪，美国国务院那边干脆表态，支持乌克兰自卫，但问到英国无人机的事直接拒评。 老实讲我的第一感受是，这就是最要命的地方，英国挨打的时候欧盟和美国都在旁边站着，嘴上说兄弟挺住，脚底下纹丝不动。 俄罗斯看准的就是这一点，你不是搞联合制裁吗，你不是说欧洲团结如钢吗，那我偏挑你们中间一个往死里整，看其他人敢不敢往前凑。
三 | 最响亮的表态 这时候再回头看凯林这个人我觉得挺有意思，他在任七年争议从来没断过，这种人走了按理说英俄关系反而该松口气，但莫斯科偏偏不派人来接。
四 | 以我的感受来说，你说他是外交官，不如说他是俄罗斯情绪的传声筒，这意思很清楚，我连传声筒都不想给你留了。 我觉得外交降级到这个份上，离正式断交只差一层窗户纸，而英国安全消息人士那句话说到了根子上，俄罗斯就是在告诉全世界，伦敦已经没有任何价值了。 对此我有一个想法，英国好歹还是被针对的那个，至少在棋盘上算个棋子，欧盟连棋子都没当上，就是个看棋的。 我们把整件事拆开来看，俄罗斯召回大使、乌克兰用英国无人机、俄罗斯警告升级、黑海扣船、欧盟不吭声、美国不站队、英国国内民意松动。
五 | 这条链子上每一个环节，在我看来都在告诉欧盟一件事，你们的安全承诺，在俄罗斯眼里就是一张废纸。 从我的角度出发，欧盟这些年一直端着架子，说自己不是美国的附庸，要有独立的外交和安全政策。
六 | 可真到了刀架在脖子上的时候，连给英国撑个场面的胆量都没有，俄罗斯这次压根没把欧盟放在眼里，从头到尾瞄准的都是英国，但打狗还得看主人，欧盟连吭都没吭一声。 我觉得最大的输家从来不是冲在最前头那个，而是旁边那个喊了半天口号、真到动手时发现自己根本没上桌的。 欧盟现在的处境就是后者，戏台子搭好了主角打得火热，它举着票站在台下，发现自己的座位早被人撤了，英国虽然挨了打但至少还站在场子里，欧盟呢连门都没进去。
七 | 以我的认知而言，这场外交冲突走到今天这个地步对谁都没好处，两边把关系搞僵了，生意做不成，老百姓的生活成本只会越来越高。
八 | 说到底我觉得没有哪个国家不希望自己越来越强大，也没有哪个普通人愿意看着物价飞涨、航线被封、外交人员来回折腾。 从我个人感受来讲，英俄之间这把空椅子什么时候能再坐上人，恐怕不取决于俄罗斯什么时候消气，也不取决于英国什么时候服软，而是取决于欧洲那帮沉默的大多数什么时候投票。
九 | 返回，查看更多。
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